As always, I was excited to see M&S launching a new summer TV ad this week.

It certainly ticks a lot of boxes: It has everyone’s favourite celebs including Lisa Snowdon, Jamie Rednapp, Twiggy and Gary Barlow covering a classic Beatle’s track. In typical M&S style, it plays into the emotions of summer and captures a collection of beautiful Brits celebrating the coming season’s events, playing games in the sunshine and topping it all off with a singsong around the BBQ.

At one level, I think it’s a very well made and memorable ad, it’s hugely emotive and aspirational and will definitely be talked about.

On another, I have to ask myself how far is too far? Can the great British public really relate their lives, summer memories and expectations to this over-the-top idyllic lifestyle?

If you’ve not seen it already, have a look and see what you think…

Adam Tregaskis
The Market Creative

With GAME going into administration on Monday, closing half its stores and making over 2,000 employees redundant, the UK retail industry once again suffers a major blow – the largest since the demise of Woolworths in 2008.

The top line of GAME’s situation appears to be a combination of a poor performance over the Christmas period followed by major suppliers pulling the plug on key titles due to worries over payment, not even mentioning the availability of direct download rather than the purchase of physical media.

The broader issue facing retailers is that in this age of price-checking, free delivery and low brand loyalty, why would a consumer visit a specific high street store for commodity items such as a video games, books or music?  What’s stopping as online purchase from a discount retailer or picking it up with the weekly shop from a supermarket? From my perspective, much of it comes down to experience, expertise and guarantee of value.

The ability to see, touch and interact with a product will always have appeal, especially if you can offer more than what’s available elsewhere. Previewing products pre-launch, meeting the people behind the product and providing exclusive variations of a product will all help to enhance the experience. Good customer service and an excellent store environment should both be hygiene factors.

Expertise is hard for the supermarkets and online retailers to provide, and high street stores can also get it very wrong too with staff whose product knowledge is limited to reading off product stickers (yeah, thanks for that), or worse still, the opposite with expert staff unable to deal with the inexperienced consumer’s trivial or ‘stupid’ questions without showing disbelief and complete scorn. A well trained member of staff should be able to add value to every conversation regardless of the customer’s level of understanding.

My final point is providing the reassurance to the consumer that, despite all the in-store benefits of experience and expertise, a purchase made from the high street is going to provide just as much value for money as trawling the internet for a bargain. Retailers can no longer charge more for service when selling a commodity item. A simple price promise goes a long way to cover this issue, and over time the customer will stop feeling the need to worry or check.

With Borders just a memory and GAME in administration, I hope HMV are able to continue to provide a good enough reason for customers to continue shopping with them…

Adam Tregaskis
The Market Creative

This year’s budget and London 2012 are both anticipated to trigger a review of the UK’s Sunday trading laws. Consumers can already shop for up six hours on a Sunday, yet the government is considering relaxing these laws to allow retailers to trade more like any other day.

Retailers think it could help increase trading and the economy in the long-run – they anticipate incremental sales by opening for a few more hours while religious leaders and shop worker unions are in strong opposition. Even in our office, never has such a small change in policy created such strong opposing views. So what are the issues? Well, here are some from the healthy debate we’ve had at The Market Creative offices.

Christian church leaders believe that the ‘specialness’ of Sunday is being eroded and are no doubt concerned that church attendance figures will drop off even further. Some are even arguing that allowing Sunday morning opening of shops is deliberately sabotaging church services by overlapping with them. This leads on to many other points – what about those religions for which Friday or Saturday is their holyday rather than Sunday? Is, or should, the UK be a Christian society, are we not a secular or multi-faith society?

When you look at the issue from an international level, the issue becomes even more clouded. Many of the overtly Christian states in the US are happy to have shops open all day on a Sunday and yet some of the more secular countries of mainland Europe have maintained that shops should remain shut all day. This issue is clearly about more than religion.

What about families wanting to spend time with each other and preserve the ritual of Sunday in a more general sense? For many, the convenience and flexibility of additional opening hours could actually make an improvement to family time. However, the more pull factors there are to take people away from the home, the less likely the family unit will be spending the day together.

And what of those who work in the front line of the retail industry that could see themselves working long hours on a Sunday and not seeing their families at all? The retailers are assuring their workers that Sunday working will remain voluntary and choosing not to work will not be frowned upon, but will this last in the long-term?

What about the inconsistency across other sectors? No-one seems to care about the retail workers in train-stations, airports or motorway service stations – we expect these shops to be open on Sundays. And, what about workers in the leisure industry? It’s fine for them to work on a Sunday isn’t it, or how would we partake in the Sunday rituals of visiting a museum, going out for a meal or early morning exercising at the gym?

Then there’s the economic viewpoint. Additional trading hours have been proven to increase revenues for retailers in the run up to Christmas and in one-off holidays, but will that really remain true for every Sunday over time to cover the increased operational costs? If it is beneficial to retailers, do consumers really need to be spending even more of their hard-earned cash in this time of austerity. Perhaps watching the pennies would be more sensible? At least the increased hours should increase employment for the retailers and also ancillary services around the stores.

For me, all of these considerations are irrelevant. The horse has already bolted – opening for six hours on a Sunday already impacts far more on all of the above than opening a bit earlier and staying open a little later. Also, the web already offers 24/7 shopping, so people can already shop as early or as late as they like on a Sunday.

I believe that the freedom of choice should lie with the consumer and those who work in the service industry should be ready to serve when it suits their customer. We’re all so busy these days and increasing the overall time available to shop should save time by reducing busyness and queuing. We should be able to spend our evenings, weekends and even Sunday mornings using retail services if we want to. I just wish someone would tell this to the banking sector!

In our office at least, the debate rages on…

Adam Tregaskis
The Market Creative

Today’s report by PriceWaterhouseCooper and the Local Data Company sighting closures of high street retailers and an increase in shops offering a value product offering should come as no real surprise as the high street continues to align itself with the economic climate and the wants and needs of society. This isn’t a new trend for the high-street and change is certainly a constant of retail marketing.

Electrical stores, travel agents, books stores, furniture retails and fashion stores are all struggling and many of the multiples are consolidating the number of stores to out of town locations.

But it isn’t all doom and gloom with value retailers, top-up supermarkets, charity shops, bakers and shoe shops all opening new stores on the high street. Maybe not the most aspirational of sectors, but growth is still growth and importantly the changes reflect the areas consumers are now in need of.

This switch from premium and lifestyle purchases to focus on distressed and essential purchases will continue as the masses feel the pinch in their purses and wallets. Even the middle-classes are following suit and being frugal is seen as fashionable rather than penny-pinching.

This trend will no doubt reverse as soon as the long awaited recovery arrives. And purchases which consumers are currently delaying will be made once the financial pressure lifts.

And what would my advice be to retailers right now; well if you’re a value retailer then this is your opportunity to make hay while the sun shines – more customers are looking for a bargain so make sure you’re capitalising on this by broadening your target audience and increasing your market share. This also a good time to be reducing your overheads by negotiating on your property rent.

Whatever your business, with high street footfall down then it is vital that your website and digital offering is second to none. For commodity items, price point is key with brand-promiscuous consumers finding it easier and easier to compare costs.

For premium or lifestyle brands, then moving to out of town locations with easier access and parking will be very tempting, but if you want to make the most of your high street locations then emphasis on providing a reason to visit is key. Allowing consumers to touch, feel and interact with your product is essential and providing an engaging retail experience will draw people to your brand.

The hard times are probably here for some time to come, but the right retail environment can see you though until the good times roll again.

Adam Tregaskis

The Market Creative

This report provides a snap shot of the retail winners and losers during the crucial Christmas and New Year trading period.

Considering the low levels of consumer confidence going into the period the results show a reasonably good Christmas – more winners than losers. Of course we have to ask ourselves at what cost to margin – but clearly shoppers are happy.

To download the full report click here.

I’ve worked in the Home sector for over 15 years, so it was with a surprising sense of warmth that I looked at the MFI offering last week. I think that warm glow comes from 15years of having them as an adversary, firstly as I led the Magnet brand and more recently with the Moben and KitchensDirect brands – they are back to fight another day, albeit with completely different backers and an online only offering.

But their re-entry into the market did make we wonder about the sheer strength of their brand. As a sweeping generalisation consumer’s memories are shorter than mine, and perhaps what they will remember is the great value flat packed products that did a job as opposed to the appalling service history.

From all the research I’ve ever seen there’s certainly positive equity in the brand and even after they had gone into administration a remarkable amount of spontaneous awareness. On balance it seems to make commercial sense to leverage that equity and manage out the less reputable elements of the brand rather than build another home brand in an already crowded category.

But is there enough strength to persuade shoppers to purchase furniture without the touch, feel and sit test? Clearly there is a market for direct brands to operate in – Tesco, Sainsbury’s & Argos are all growing share – their trusted status must overcome shoppers desire to try. Maybe the MFI history as furniture specialists will overcome shopper’s desires to fall in love with the physical product.

All negativity aside I’m actually quite excited about the brand’s future – what will it stand for, who will it be? How will they engage with shoppers? One things for sure they’ve come out with a bang! Big offer sale to make the sheds shudder and beautiful looking products at slightly unbelievable prices. For me it’s just the story that’s missing and in this era of authenticity and storytelling will there be enough strength in the brand to reach out to new younger shoppers without it.

MFI is run by operators who know what they are doing so I expect there’s a plan!

Good luck guys

There’s been a lot of hype surrounding the arrival of Booths at Media City, Manchester. So after making a first trip there I thought I would use our strategic tool, SHOP to analyse how successful this store format is.

Personality
The Booths personality is really strong, the store looks very modern, in keeping with its location. The signage, clear branding and imagery both on the exterior and within the store environment all start to tell the Booths story clearly. The atmosphere as you walk in on the ground floor feels really vibrant.

Education
Lots of brand and product leaflets are clearly displayed in the store for customers to pick up. Once inside product information and pricing was clear once you got to the shelves. I really admire the fact that Booths always stock something new and a bit different and support British suppliers, this was evident in the displays around the store. I have always perceived Booths to be at the pricier end of the supermarket offering and this store being no different. There wasn’t anything that obviously tackled product pricing so whilst they may achieve parity with competitors it’s not promoted.

Engagement
Overall feel from the store was that it’s been incredibly beautifully designed and the product displays were really inspiring. Although, with some of the displays, it’s not clear whether a customer actually has permission to buy from them, which is surely what the purpose of product display is. Retail design has clearly been an important consideration here and a lot of effort has gone into developing the store architecture. The store is very light airy and the images used really give the feeling of fresh produce on offer, the deli is inviting and has a lot of character. All of these things go toward a feeling positive towards the store. The Booths staff are wonderfully friendly and make the check-out experience quick, efficient and pleasant.

Information
I found it really difficult to navigate the store; the store layout isn’t clear from the entrance. Trying to find the way upstairs I first ended up in the frozen food section, then did a couple of laps of the store. Finally, when I was about to give up, I saw someone walking up the stairs, so headed that way and finally found some clear direction on the walls but it was all hard work. Product areas are also badly signposted, relying on customer knowledge of how products are stocked in a supermarket rather than clearly showing the way. Once I made it upstairs, it took me a long time to find what I wanted, which was frustrating. I want my grocery shopping to be as easy as possible. I was glad to see that you could pay upstairs as there are tills here but when I visited not one of them was open.

Promotion
There is no clearly visible promotional strategy. Nothing to tell you what if any promotions are in store and this seems at odds with the category norms in grocery shopping. In a hugely competitive arena consumers are constantly being bombarded with value messages and actively looking for the best deals, so to not find it is unexpected. The lack of promotion doesn’t help customers and in a store where there has been so much investment it would help them get the return they must need.

Chloe Richards

Its official Christmas can start now. There are some ads that define a period in time and the Christmas offering from John Lewis is one of them.

From the start of the soundtrack I was totally hooked. They have to be congratulated for creating such an engaging normal family setting, the mood of the ad just feels right for our turbulent economic times. The casting of the central character is absolutely perfect.

It created huge empathy, bringing back all those feelings of the excitement, anticipation and frustration of waiting for Christmas as a child and as a mum it reminded me how much I’m looking forward to joining my own kids as they go through all of that again this year.

It’s a wonderful piece of communication, insightful and provoking a huge emotional response from the humorous little insights building through to a lump in my throat and tears pricking at my eyes.

As for the twist at the end…

John Lewis doesn’t really have to do much to persuade me as a consumer to part with my cash at their stores. This one has made them even more appealing, it’s already a classic. Brilliant.

Chloe Richards

I fancied a bit of art in the office, so I asked my daughter to draw a picture. I thought she would draw a family scene or the seascape – but she drew what is clearly her impression of The Market. I’m delighted that she now thinks that we do advertising that helps people – genius! The shopping trolley proudly displayed on our wall hasn’t passed her by either. And so to the moral of the story no matter how big or small your brand is and ours is clearly tiny make sure your brand has a clear and easily understandable proposition – one that can be consistently told even by a child. Thanks Lil, for this eye opening moment.

Morrison’s have managed to do the impossible making that trip to the shops you really don’t want to do, to get all the bits & pieces you have forgotten an easy, even pleasant experience.

The new Morrison’s c store is full of brilliant touches that make shopping quick and easy and it all comes with the same feeling of value that you get from the bigger stores.

From the innovative shape of the trollies, which are just brilliant, to the wooden crates holding the fresh produce which firmly brings home the ‘market street’ proposition without having to shout about it. There’s also very clear messaging that prices are the same as you find in the main stores , which should be tackled but isn’t something that I’ve seen so clearly in competitors c-stores.

The product areas are clearly delineated using engaging POS and colour coding and the range of products is great for a c store, from the usual grab n’ go lunch and dinner solutions to a great range of fresh produce, BWS and fresh bakery to innovations like freshly squeezed orange juice, fresh takeaway coffees and even grind your own coffee beans.

Other great touches are the fruit bowls dotted along where you queue up to pay, (which I’ve since seen taken up by competitors) so customers can buy a single apple instead of the guilty last minute chocolate purchase.

Sky news on display behind the counter is another fantastic touch, the sound is turned off but the newsfeed is there as a distraction if you need it. So you can still have a chat to the wonderfully friendly staff if you want to.

It’s a surprisingly pleasant experience with all the great things that Morrison’s do so well along with the value that you get from the main stores. I’m pretty certain I wouldn’t have got so much shopping for so little money elsewhere.

Chloe Richards

I haven’t been in a Wilko’s in years so I was pleasantly surprised by their new store in Wythenshaw, Manchester. Using our SHOP methodology I thought I’d share some of the highlights.

Personality – The store is well on its way to delivering ‘The home of family value’. With only 10 days trading history under its belt it looked like it had already bedded into the community with several shoppers talking about how often they had been in the store since it opened – which lives up to their vision to engender loyalty and be at the heart of the community. There’s scope to be even more family centric though.

Education – the order & collect in store service platform and community services are clearly delivered at focal points in the store. But more could be made of them within key categories.

Engagement – They had some really interesting products in baking, gardening and Halloween – but I wanted more! As a mum I wanted the perfect Halloween party list, or baking ideas for Halloween – things to both make me buy and basket build.

Information – the store had an unusually spacey, clear and intuitive navigation system that seemed to reflect their natural audiences – e.g. DIY felt more masculine that health& beauty.

Promotion – certainly plenty of emphasis on value – with price check throughout the traditional grocery categories. But the overall store promotion “time for uni’ felt at odds with the retail environment and more importantly their shoppers – it felt excusive rather than inclusive. It’s clearly an opportunity area for Wilko’s and perfect from a timing view point but living on its own just felt out of kilter with their families.

Wilko’s are one of those rare retail success stories, but it seems to me their greatest challenge is to get new shoppers through the door and basket build once they are inside. With incredibly friendly and passionate colleagues, once in shoppers could find it surprisingly addictive. Needless to say I came out £12.10 lighter having bought things I’ve been meaning to buy for yonks!

Sue Benson

We paid a visit to some much loved clients at the Baby Show in Manchester over the weekend and were amazed to find that on the day we visited it was eerily quiet.

It was a Friday, but that’s usually when these shows are so crowded you can hardly move for new and expectant mums investigating all the great new products they want to spend their hard earned cash on. Is it a sign of the times that there just weren’t that many people there or is experiential just not enough of a draw? There was less innovation than we’ve seen in previous years with the notable exception of the fantastic Chillipeeps http://www.chillipeeps.com

Thankfully, our clients seemed busy (always good) but with the emergence of a very strong second hand market this could be the point in time that nursery retailers need to start thinking very differently. The second hand market is a great way for cash strapped new parents to prepare for the arrival of baby.

With luxury items such as Bugaboos are on sale online at £500 when they retail at around £850, not a bad return on your investment. But the online second hand market for the nursery sector isn’t solely reliant on e-bay and with new entrants and the current economic climate, it’s going to have a significant impact on retailers.

Social is such an important part of retail conversations that your social profile is crucial to get mums on your side. From all the work we’ve done with mums we know that social conversations and personal recommendation is one thing that mums REALLY trust.

We’re often asked what we believe the next retail trend is, and as we put the finishing touches to our full report on 2012 we thought we’d share some of the most influential ones.

Becoming shopperholics
Understanding shoppers and their behaviour has never been higher up the boardroom agenda. Real insights and tangible actions deliver sales and market share growth. Thinking like a shopper is central to retailer’s success.

Let me entertain YOU
Nothing too new about this trend, shoppers have been seeking richer retail experience for years. But now they are expecting it personalized to them – Addidas’s experiment with facial recognition is just once advance that could shape the retail environment.

The value of Social Shopping
There’s no doubt that social media especially the deal and coupon sites are driving retail traffic, and with f-commerce about to explode the key over the next few years will be to establish real value & ROI from social shopping activity.

Service experiences
If you look at the UK’S retail winners and losers it’s the brands with a service ethos built into them that have grown – John Lewis, Waitrose, M&S, Asda. Introducing new service platforms drives loyalty and greater consumer engagement which will be the key to retail survival.

The return of the high street
The combined forces of consumers staying local and retailers needing to get a greater return from their bricks and mortar may lead to more emphasis placed on high street stores. What about the concept of high street discount – rather than online discount?

Shopper memorable ideas than transcend channels
Retailer’s success will come down to brand differentiation and connection with their customers through all the channels. The ongoing challenge will be to find marketing services partners who can tell the story with authenticity and consistency.

Like most people in the retail industry we’ve been working on xmas 2011 for yonks now, so it was with a slight sense of relief that the Christmas card season started last week – both Next and John Lewis displaying reasonable ranges.

For us the first sighting of the Christmas card is usually the barometer for thinking about 2012 and beyond and putting to bed the 2011 campaigns. But before I get really stuck into 2012 I thought I’d ponder a minute further on some of the questions we’ve been asking ourselves?

What will the retail landscape look like? With The British Retail Consortium, painting a gloomy picture of the high street, saying that one in 10 shops is now vacant it could certainly be rather a depressing experience. Which retailers will succumb to the September rent payments? What will an Xmas at 20% VAT be like? How much of Xmas spending this year will be influenced by the discount voucher? Which retailer will bolt first and give us an amazing early sale? Will the Pandora queue be round the block again? Will Hobbycraft sales go through the roof as we all try and achieve the ‘Kristie Allsopp’ Christmas? Will it be QR code heaven – will consumers actually engage with the technology and make it mainstream?

Whilst we have the answers for some of these questions we’ll all have to wait and see with every finger we have crossed in the hope that 2011 doesn’t turn out to be as bad as we fear!

On a more cheery note our 2012 Retail Trends Report will be out at the end of September. Drop me a note if you want to hear more.

Sue Benson

With only 3 hours to spare in Carnaby Street, my shopping heaven has to be ‘Illamasqua. Make-up for your alter ego.’ The whole experience was amazing, the windows, the POS and as you walked in the brand story was totally different from most make-up brands. It was edgy, dramatic, lighting was moody, and the girls looked like they walked off the pages of the brochure, totally living up to the theatrical drama of the brand (nothing has captured my imagination so completely since the launch of MAC). The staff were so, so helpful they let me try on and play with all the make-up and they even have a make-up school at the back of the store. They have concessions in Selfridges and some Debenhams & Fenwick stores and of course you can get them at ASOS. www.illamasqua.com

Then for food, Leon Restaurant, mmmmnnn, I’ve got the book but was dying to eat there or get a take out from one of them. Absolutely delicious. Again, the whole experience lived up to the brand, I loved the packaging and the menu, I just wish they would open some up in the rest of the country. www.leonrestaurants.co.uk

And then it would be wrong not to visit TopShop’s flagship Oxford Street store, as always you can’t beat it. It’s worth a visit just to see what they are doing next, loving the cupcakes! It’s more of a lifestyle, department store than a fashion store, and even in my (very early) forties I still feel allowed to go in there and shop. I can’t wait to see what will they be selling next?

Dorina x

Yesterday we went on a team away day to discuss strategic planning for the next 5 years. It was nice to get away from the norm even if only for a few hours. We put some exciting plans in place which we’ll share with you in the not too distant future. We finished off with a spot of lunch in the local pub! Good day.

Mark Griffiths

Is it me or are retailers doing everything they can to kill off their high street stores or at worst simply make them cost heavy showrooms? With House of Fraser announcing another new format click & collect store and Debenhams online kiosks coming to a store near you in the next couple of weeks I cant help feeling that yet more emphasis is being placed on a digital world rather than placing energies on creating rich shopping experiences.

Now don’t get me wrong we live in a truly multichannel world and each channel should drive traffic to one and other in the most customer centric manner but talking to shoppers in all sorts categories they still love the experinces of shopping, the social, tactile, fabulous feeling of entering a store. Shoppers in this recessionary period want more value and they extend that to their shop experinces. So my plea to retailer is to carry on thinking about digital and social shopping but think more about the shopping experinces in store.

Sue Benson

We’ve been professionally shopping in the bathroom sector for years albeit more latterly at the top end of the sector with Dolphin. But yesterday we shopped in Wickes & Homebase with fresh eyes, and although we were pleasantly surprised by the products, god help anybody who actually wants to buy a new bathroom. As both retailers offer a full service solution I sense they have decided to create a degree shopper bewilderment to drive people to their expert services.

As anyone who has had a new bathroom will know, its a minefield of decisions and ends up costing 3 times what you thought because of all the things you have forgotten to add in – taps, showerheads and tiles being the biggest culprits. In both stores there were glimpses of help – Homebase had a fab little leaflet telling you what to think about, but it was hidden away and only the keenest of mystery shoppers will find it. Wickes had POS that communicated how to choose, but again shoppers were overwhelmed by other messages that got in the way. Both retailers are working hard to establish themselves as inspirational player in this market, their ATL communication depict a lifestyle partnership – so why doesn’t this live in store. A view from the cheap seats and only a snap shot of out thoughts but retailers come on – I’m sure you can do better! SB

Magnificent news – John Lewis in city centres can only be good news for high street st retail in general. Clearly competition will increase but so will footfall, giving people more reasons to go into the key city centres. Manchester for example can only get better with a JL at its heart. It gives Manchester shoppers a reason to go into the city as well as the Trafford Centre and will fill the voids left by the sad demise of other retailers. As for smaller formats that will be interesting. What will be sacrificed? The natural place start would be to remove large ticket items and focus on fashion & beauty. Will they change the shopper journey or the POS strategy? We’ll have to wait till the unveil Exeter to find out. Can’t wait! SB.

Yesterday I had the privilege of standing in front of 1000 HomeForm Group colleagues to present our strategy for Moben kitchens, Sharps bedrooms, Dolphin bathrooms and KitchensDirect. Apart from the fact that a had the odd butterfly in my stomach it was a day filled with intense pride. The HomeForm Group team presented all the campaign work from the new TV commercials, to the press to the POS – all from The Market. Its amazing what we have achieve in such a short time as a team. Well done to everyone involved.

Sue Benson

I’ve probably had my brand head somewhere buried in the sand, so completely missed any hype about the launch of the new Warburtons pitta crisps. But just as I thought that trapsing round Tesco on a Friday night would never end, there sitting in the proudly in the increasingly dull crisp aisle was the new Warburtons Pitta crisp. Without evening batting an eye my husband put the crisps – both flavours – in our trolley.

Now how’s that for successful brand extension. We then had a debate about whether Warburtons had the brand credentials to stretch into crisps, but it seems that his view – its baked, therefore it works. Who am I to argue! Warburtons new brand identity, packaging formats and postioning certainly lends itself to innovation and Family Bakers  is clearly broad enough to carry into other baked categories – so where next for Warburtons? What fun they must be having.

Sue Benson

The Market team recently visited the TV set for the new Kitchens Direct advert.

The campaign for will run across TV, press and online advertising, featuring the company’s new brand identity, which will aim to target a new, younger audience and includes the strapline ‘My Kitchen, My Choice, My Price.’

See the gallery below..

A later than usual Easter weekend. A four day bank holiday for the royal wedding just a few days later. And with school holidays falling outside the bank holiday, pupils in some areas have virtually the whole month off. This combination of factors has left retailers scratching their heads – will Easter 2011 be retail heaven or hell? Sue Benson, managing director of shopper marketing agency The Market, explains:

Can we use the past to predict the future?
The shape of Easter 2011 is completely unprecedented. Not only is it the latest Easter Sunday since 1943, but thanks to the royal wedding date being set for Friday, April 29 there is an additional bank holiday Friday this year. For the first time ever, two four day weekends follow each other.

The effect is an Easter period which rolls into one rather jumbled and prolonged period of time off. Many people who work a standard five day week have taken April 26, 27 and 28 off to give themselves a bumper 11 days away from work.

While your average person will be thanking William and Kate for the ‘buy three, get 11’ holiday opportunity, retailers are nervous and questioning what it will mean for them.

We don’t have a crystal ball, but we can speculate using previous seasons and trends as guidance. If we look at previous dates for Easter, match retail figures to them and then take a look at what the prevailing weather conditions were at the time it provides some interesting insights.

Last year, when Easter fell on April 4, John Lewis reported ‘remarkable’ sales figures, up around 30% year-on-year across the group. John Lewis stores in Bluewater and the Trafford Centre both saw a 45% plus uplift in sales. Easter 2010 was particularly wet, and in the North West at least, the weather worsened across the weekend until the sun finally appeared late on Monday afternoon!

Taken in isolation, it would appear that the wet weather caused a migration to the big, undercover shopping areas, with general lifestyle-led retailers like John Lewis benefitting greatly.

In 2008, when Easter fell on the earliest ever date of March 23, the Office of National Statistics reported generally poor retail sales. Again, the weather was particularly bad – it was bitterly cold, and in some parts of the country Easter Sunday saw snow. So while rain actually drives people to certain kinds of shops, does cold weather and snow put them off going out at all?

The long range weather forecaster Netweather says of April 2011, that drier weather will become more prevalent with much of the country seeing below average rain across the month, at the same time all regions are expected to be slightly warmer than the average – this could be good for the high street.

But what we can say for sure is that whatever the weather, Easter will boost sales. In 2009, when Easter fell on April 12, sales figures that month showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and this ‘Easter uplift’ is generally repeated down the years.

The effect of consumer confidence
Rain or shine, will all of this be irrelevant against a backdrop of low consumer confidence and a drive for austerity?

The Consumer Confidence Barometer reported in February 2011 that consumer confidence has stabilised, but not bounced back.

Nick Moon, Managing Director of GfK NOP Social Research, said: “Overall confidence remains low and, although it has not reached the depths of two years ago, the fact that it is 10 points down on six months ago, and 14 points down on a year ago, represents a significant set-back to hopes of recovery.”

So while a general stabilisation has to be good news, it does cause a general worry for those selling big ticket items. Why Sue???

Consumer confidence barometers apart, the long gap between Christmas and this holiday period feels like it could be the right time of year to spend. We all know that it’s not just a case of feeling more optimistic about the economy, it’s a case of feeling more optimistic about life generally – warmer, longer days play a huge part in the nation’s spending psyche.

Shopping time or family time – will this shape Easter trading patterns?
The unusual set of events in April 2011 have caused some schools to reorganise their Easter holiday, which in state schools normally lasts for two weeks or so. It’s usually the case that pupils have a holiday which incorporates Easter itself and then go back to school well before the early May bank holiday. There is a return to normality before the bonus of another long weekend.

This year appears to be a case of ‘each to their own’ with even schools in the same area taking different holidays – a logistical nightmare not just for parents but for retailers attempting to plan for this vital trading period.

School holidays split across the country doesn’t help either – 50% of schools are taking one or both of the first two weeks of April off and then the remainder taking the time off around Easter and the Bank Holiday.

From a sociological perspective, increasing importance is placed on family time and spending this period doing things together, and this is evidenced in the growth in the Easter category, such as the M&S Easter party range, and the Cadburys great Easter egg hunt.

Because it is law for shops above a certain square footage to close on Easter Sunday, our prediction is that the first three days of this long break will be for family. Then it’ll be to hit the shops on Easter Monday through to the next event, the wedding.

At The Market we are experts in observational research, and bank holiday shoppers generally display a certain type of behaviour. The ‘day out’ shopping mentality will be in play, so behaviour will be more leisurely with browsing and enjoyment rather than extreme short bursts more common on an ordinary weekend – the dash for things so you can spend more time at home.

Our survey said…
We did a quick survey of our colleagues, friends and family to find out what people were planning for Easter weekend. Of the 60 or so people we spoke to, this is what they said:

• Spending time shopping for DIY items – 28.8%
• Spending time shopping for clothes – 30.8%
• Spending time shopping for home – 16.7%
• Spending time shopping for garden – 42.3%

This is clearly great news if you’re a garden retailer! Generally Easter is about the outdoors, feeling like the first weekend of Spring. The weather is also likely to determine the fate of the DIY sector – inside wielding a paintbrush or outside enjoying the first warm weather of the year, I know which I’d rather choose!

One thing I can predict with certainty is that food retailers will have an amazing Easter, with numerous opportunities for parties and gatherings. I think we’ll see some interesting promotions, particularly on alcohol, as the supermarkets battle it out for Easter trade.

We also asked our sample if they would be more likely to shop at Easter than May Bank Holiday – 22.8% said yes and 77.2% said no, which would suggest that there isn’t a skew towards one of the weekends in retail terms.

What can retailers do to counteract the effects?
Clearly the action a retailer needs to take to counteract the effects of an unusual trading period is dependent on a number of factors, not least which sector they are in. Generally, we would recommend:

• Strong promotional offers with clear close dates – to drive footfall over the Easter weekend then the following three day period leading to the royal wedding.

• Retailers need to be persuasive to give people reassurance that this is a wise time to buy – focus on benefits and value.

• Get into the spirit of the occasion and appeal to the family/holiday feel – so make things more experiential.

• Involve the kids – make this a family experience. Give parents something to do with their children.

• Think about how they can drive traffic to the High Street environment – give away High Street discounts rather than online discounts.

• Voucher season – enter the world of social shopping and use social media channels to influence a shopper’s decision. Given that 90% of decisions are researched online, get involved with shoppers before they make a purchase.

Very good day in the office after the news that we’ve won a £12m piece of advertising business for Homeform Group. Check out the story on the How do website!

MG

Over at The Market towers, we’ve been keeping a close eye on all our favourite retailers to see how they performed over the Christmas period.

The likes of HMV seemed to have grabbed the headlines with like for like sales down 10.2% and the threat of store closures over the next few weeks but there was other retailers in different sectors with a similar story.

Check out our list below of the winners and losers and let us know your comments/opinions in the box below.

MG

Winners

• OCADO – up 26.7%
• John Lewis – Like for like sales up 7.6% to Jan 1st
• Waitrose – Like for like sales up 5.4%
• Blacks leisure – Like for like sales up 1.2%
• Mountain warehouse – Like for like sales up 15.6%
• Sainsburys – Like for like sales up 3.6% to Jan 8th Ex Petrol
• Morrisons – Like for like sales up 1% to Jan 2nd
• Abel & Cole – Sales uplift of 25% over Christmas
• Marks & Spencers – Up 2.8%
• House of Fraser – Like for like sales up 8.5%
• Hobbs – Up 12%
• Topps Tiles – Like for like sales up 2.2%
• SuperGroup – (SuperDry fashion brand) + 93.6%
• Boots – Uk December like for like sales up 3.8%
• The original factory shop – like for like sales up 5%
• The Perfume Shop – like for like sales up 2%
• The Hut (online retailer) like for like sales up 70%
• BrightHouse – Furniture/Electrical rentals – Up 9.8%
• Dunelm – Total sales in the 26 weeks to January 1st rose 8.5%
• Retail bellwether Marks & Spencer generated UK like-for-like growth of 2.8% and market share gains over the Christmas period
• Burberry reported a 27% hike in revenue to £470m in the three months to December 31 with double digit growth across both their wholesale and retail sectors.
• Camera specialist Jessops like-for-likes grew 3% over Christmas as “choice and service” helped grow sales.
• Superdrug Christmas like-for-likes up 1.7% – Superdrug has reported like-for-like sales up 1.7% over Christmas
• Ikea group profits rise 6% – Furniture giant Ikea has revealed full year net profit growth of 6.1% to €2.7bn.
• Holland & Barrett like-for-likes up 2.3% in December – Holland & Barrett reported like-for-like sales up 2.3% in December as shoppers sought out health foods over the festive period.

Losers

• HMV – Like-for-like sales down 10.2%
• Clintons cards – Down 2.1%
• Debenhams – Down 3% on like for like sales – Blame bad weather.
• Mothercare – Down 5.8% to Jan 1st
• H Samuel – Down 2.8%
• Ernest Jones – Down 5.9%
• Next – Lost £22m in full price sales. Still expected to meet expectation on profit.
• Thorntons, the specialist chocolatier, reported like-for-like sales down 5.9%
• Game UK & Ireland like-for-likes have improved over the Christmas period, declining 0.5%
• Halfords’ retail like-for-like sales plunged by 6.6% over its Christmas trading period
• Electricals market leader Dixons, owner of Currys and PC World, reported a 4% fall in like-for-likes at its core UK business over Christmas.
• The Co-operative Group has reported like-for-like sales fell 3.2% in its food division for its fourth quarter, saying the weather took its toll on footfall and spending patterns.
• Fashion retailer New Look suffered a 9.1% plunge in like-for-likes at its core UK business during the peak Christmas period,
• Retail Sector – The stores sector suffered a like-for-like sales decline of 0.3% during the crucial month of December as snow hit sales.
• Matalan festive like-for-likes slump 4.5%